New Report Estimates Public Housing Investment Could Generate $102 Billion in Value Across the GTHA
Public Housing Dividend Report Highlights Economic and Social Returns
TORONTO — A new modelling study estimates that a combined public housing renewal and expansion strategy could generate up to $102 billion in economic and social value across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) between 2026 and 2050.
The findings are outlined in the newly released Public Housing Dividend Report, a study prepared by the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis (CANCEA) for the GTHA Community Housing Collaborative, with support from Scotiabank. The report was officially launched June 1 at the Scotiabank Centre in downtown Toronto.
The findings are based on scenario modelling conducted by CANCEA using its ONEMODEL socioeconomic simulation platform and should be interpreted as projections rather than direct forecasts.
According to the report, a combined strategy of renewing existing public housing infrastructure while expanding the public housing portfolio produced the strongest outcomes among five investment pathways examined over the next 25 years.
Measuring the Return on Public Housing
The report describes itself as a first-of-its-kind analysis that measures the full return on investment generated by public housing infrastructure by examining economic, fiscal, health and social outcomes together.
Researchers modeled five investment scenarios across the GTHA and evaluated how varying levels and types of public housing investment could affect economic growth, government spending, housing availability and community well-being.
Under the report’s preferred “Renewal + Construction” scenario, the public housing system would expand to approximately 102,500 active units by 2050 while housing about 239,500 residents. The study estimates that pathway could generate approximately $48.3 billion in cumulative social value and $49.6 billion in cumulative GDP impact.
Key Findings
According to the report’s modelling, a combined public housing renewal and expansion strategy could result in:
- Approximately 354,500 cumulative job-years of employment across sectors including construction, manufacturing, transportation, retail and professional services.
- Nearly 15,000 jobs supported by 2050.
- Roughly $1.8 billion in healthcare and justice-system savings compared with the expected funding scenario.
- Approximately $6 billion in private capital attracted to communities where public housing is renewed and expanded.
- More than 23,000 public housing units added or protected from closure by 2050.
- Housing capacity for more than 86,000 additional residents compared with the reduced funding scenario.
- An estimated $48.3 billion in social value associated with improved housing stability, health outcomes and community well-being.
- Approximately $12.6 billion in combined federal and provincial tax revenues generated through economic activity over the study period.
Housing as Economic Infrastructure
Toronto Community Housing President and CEO Sean Baird said the report demonstrates that public housing should be viewed as productive infrastructure that creates measurable returns for communities and governments.
“The Public Housing Dividend proves that public housing is productive infrastructure that generates measurable economic, health, and fiscal returns,” said Baird.
“Like bridges, transit, and hospitals, public housing infrastructure’s value goes far beyond its immediate purpose.”
Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow said the report highlights the broader benefits associated with investing in affordable and public housing.
“Everyone deserves a safe and affordable place to call home,” Chow said in a statement. “This report shows that investing in public housing creates jobs, improves health outcomes, strengthens communities and saves money over the long term.”
Regional Collaboration
The GTHA Community Housing Collaborative was established earlier this year and brings together the six largest public housing providers in Toronto, Peel, York, Durham, Halton and Hamilton.
Collectively, the collaborative oversees approximately 81,500 public housing homes and serves more than 150,000 tenants across the region. According to the organization, its members represent roughly 40 per cent of Ontario’s public housing stock and manage assets valued at more than $20 billion.
Looking Ahead
Supporters of the report say the findings provide evidence that public housing can generate long-term economic and social returns when evaluated beyond traditional housing metrics.
The study concludes that the strongest overall outcomes come from combining renewal of existing housing stock with the construction of new public housing units, rather than pursuing either strategy on its own.
As governments across Canada continue searching for solutions to housing affordability, homelessness and infrastructure challenges, the report’s authors suggest that public housing investment should be evaluated not only as a social policy tool, but also as a driver of economic growth, employment and community resilience.
The full report is available through the GTHA Community Housing Collaborative.
Source: GTHA Community Housing Collaborative and Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis (CANCEA) Public Housing Dividend Report, April 2026.
This article is based on information released by the GTHA Community Housing Collaborative, Scotiabank, and the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis (CANCEA).
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