Ontario Releases 2025 Fall Economic Statement: A Plan to Protect Ontario
Province outlines strategy to strengthen competitiveness, affordability, and fiscal resilience amid global uncertainty
TORONTO — Ontario’s Minister of Finance, Peter Bethlenfalvy, has unveiled the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review: A Plan to Protect Ontario, a comprehensive blueprint to strengthen the province’s economy, safeguard jobs, and enhance affordability for families amid growing global trade tensions and tariffs from the United States.
The Fall Economic Statement highlights the Ford government’s continued focus on fiscal prudence, infrastructure investment, and targeted supports for workers and businesses — positioning Ontario for long-term stability and growth.
“With tariffs taking direct aim at Ontario workers and communities, it has never been more important for the government to deliver on its plan to protect Ontario,” said Minister Bethlenfalvy. “We continue to make historic investments in highways, transit, health care, and all the services our communities rely on, while keeping costs down for families and unleashing Ontario’s full economic potential.”
Today, Minister @PBethlenfalvy delivered our 2025 Fall Economic Statement. Our plan to protect Ontario is building a more competitive and resilient economy so we can attract investment, support Ontario workers and keeps costs down for Ontario families. Find out more:… pic.twitter.com/CXUjvH4Ltt
— Doug Ford (@fordnation) November 6, 2025
Major Measures and Investments
1. Affordable Homeownership for First-Time Buyers
Ontario is proposing to rebate the full 8% provincial portion of the HST for first-time home buyers purchasing new homes valued up to $1 million. Combined with federal relief measures, buyers could save up to $130,000 — a move expected to help young families enter the housing market and stimulate construction activity.
2. Tax Action Plan for Workers and Businesses
The province will develop a new Tax Action Plan to modernize Ontario’s personal and corporate tax systems, helping to attract investment and offset the impacts of U.S. tariffs. Further details will be provided in the 2026 Ontario Budget.
3. Trade Resilience Through the Ontario Together Trade Fund (OTTF)
Ontario is investing an additional $100 million in the OTTF, bringing total funding to $150 million over three years to help small and medium-sized businesses diversify markets, strengthen supply chains, and grow interprovincial trade.
4. Enhanced Manufacturing Tax Credit
The province is temporarily enhancing the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit from 10% to 15%, while expanding eligibility to more corporations — promoting innovation and cost efficiency for Ontario’s manufacturers.
5. Health Care Strengthening
Ontario will invest $1.1 billion over three years to expand home care services and the Hospital to Home (H2H) program, helping seniors and patients recover safely at home while easing pressure on hospitals.
6. Protecting Ontario Account Expansion
The province is leveraging the $5 billion Protecting Ontario Account to shield workers and industries affected by tariffs — particularly in the steel, aluminum, copper, and auto sectors — ensuring companies stay open and jobs remain secure.
7. Historic Capital Plan
With over $201 billion planned in infrastructure investments over 10 years, including $33 billion in 2025–26 alone, Ontario is advancing major transportation, health, and education projects that will fuel economic recovery and job creation.
Fiscal Outlook
Ontario’s fiscal position continues to improve, with the 2025–26 deficit projected at $13.5 billion, an improvement of $1.1 billion from earlier forecasts. The province remains on track to balance the budget by 2027–28, with a projected $0.2 billion surplus by that time.
The net debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to remain stable at 37.7%, below target levels — a testament to what the government describes as “fiscal discipline” amid global economic headwinds.
Economic Growth and Next Steps
Ontario’s real GDP is forecast to rise by 0.8% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026, in line with the spring budget outlook. The government will launch public consultations ahead of the 2026 Ontario Budget, inviting Ontarians to share ideas on strengthening the economy, reducing costs, and improving services.
Follow GTA Today on social media for more updates on Ontario’s economy and public policy. #GTAToday
