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Canadian Housing Market on Track for Strong Growth in 2024, GTA Leads the Way

Royal LePage Forecasts 10.0% Increase in GTA Home Prices by Fourth Quarter

TORONTO – The Canadian housing market is poised for robust growth in 2024, with the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) leading the charge, according to the latest forecast from Royal LePage.

The real estate brokerage firm predicts a 9.0% increase in the aggregate price of homes across Canada in the fourth quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2023. This upward revision is driven by stronger-than-expected results in the first quarter, indicating a significant rebound in the market.

“Consistent with our previous forecast, the market did reach a critical tipping point in the first quarter of 2024, when home prices bottomed out and began to appreciate again,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “Clearly, more and more buyers are motivated by the need to get ahead of rising home prices, rather than adopting the strategy of waiting for mortgage rates to fall.”

In the GTA, specifically, the aggregate price of a home increased by 5.2% year over year to $1,177,700 in the first quarter of 2024. Single-family detached homes saw a 3.9% increase, with a median price of $1,454,800, while condominiums experienced a 3.7% rise, reaching a median price of $733,600.

Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., noted that buyers are acting with caution, considering elevated borrowing costs and tight lending restrictions. Despite the competitive market, homes are selling for market value, signaling a balanced environment for buyers and sellers.

Looking ahead, Royal LePage forecasts a 10.0% increase in the aggregate price of a home in the GTA by the fourth quarter of 2024, surpassing the national average. The region is expected to experience the greatest price appreciation of all major markets.

In response to the housing affordability crisis, the federal government has proposed measures aimed at accelerating housing construction and boosting rental supply. These initiatives include investment in infrastructure and the introduction of a Canadian Renters’ Bill of Rights.

Experts believe that while interest rate cuts may draw more buyers into the market, the primary driver of rising home prices remains the severe shortage of housing in markets across Canada.

Commentary:

The forecasted growth in the Canadian housing market, particularly in the GTA, is promising for homeowners and sellers. However, it poses challenges for prospective buyers, especially first-time buyers, who may face affordability constraints amid rising prices and borrowing costs.

As the market continues to heat up, policymakers must prioritize initiatives to address housing supply shortages and ensure affordability for all Canadians. Investment in infrastructure and rental housing, coupled with measures to support first-time buyers, will be crucial in achieving a sustainable and inclusive housing market.

For now, homeowners in the GTA can expect continued appreciation in their property values, while prospective buyers should be prepared to navigate a competitive market with the guidance of real estate professionals.

Julien Jean-Pierre

Julien Jean Pierre is a licensed real estate professional with extensive experience in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). He brings a wealth of expertise and a genuine passion for helping clients achieve their real estate goals. As a trusted contributor to GTA Today, Julien provides valuable insights into the dynamic GTA market. Clients appreciate his commitment to excellence and personalized service. For inquiries and feedback, contact Julien at jjeanpierre@royallepage.ca.

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